The Pinly Fuel blog
Making sense of the fuel-price cycle — the myths, the timing, and the honest maths, straight from the government's own numbers.
- Oil & macro
Brisbane petrol and diesel after Brent fell to US$98: how much, and when
Brisbane petrol and diesel: Brent fell 13.3% this week, about 12.9 c/L if it all passes through. Wholesale petrol fell 14.0 c/L, the pump 6.0 by Friday.
- Diesel
Diesel stocks at 34 days: what sets Queensland's pump price
Diesel stocks rose to 34 days, but Queensland's pump price follows the wholesale gate: Brisbane diesel 286.9 c/L, 48.0 over unleaded, 43.9 of it wholesale.
- Oil & macro
Brisbane petrol and diesel near US$117 Brent: the stronger dollar is worth about 1 c/L
Brisbane petrol and diesel: Brent rose 6.2% to US$116.72 in a week. The stronger dollar was worth about 1 c/L, and the petrol gate price fell anyway.
- Oil & macro
Brisbane petrol and diesel after Brent hit US$110: how much, how fast
Brisbane petrol and diesel: Brent's US$110 jump on 16 October is worth about 3.9 c/L if wholesale takes it in full. It is not in the gate price yet.
- Market wrap
Brisbane petrol is 1.7 c/L under the wholesale gate price
Brisbane's median unleaded petrol is 239.9 c/L, 1.7 c under the 241.6 wholesale list price. The Queensland median is level with it. Diesel is 23.7 above.
- Oil & macro
G7 diesel reserve release: will Queensland diesel get cheaper?
Brisbane diesel is about 288 c/L, down 1.2 c since the G7 announced a release of up to 100 million barrels. Wholesale moved 0.3 c. Here is the data.
- Geo-guide
Cheap fuel near the Brisbane CBD: it's the servo, not the distance
The belief is city fuel is a rip. It isn't: the inner-6km median is 238.9 c/L — the same as the whole metro. The cheapest inner pump is Liberty Annerley at 221.5; the dearest is BP Ashgrove on Waterworks Rd at 243.9 — a 22.4c spread inside one ring. The cheap boards are discounters; the dear ones are mostly Shell Reddy Express. QLD Government feed.
- Myth-bust
"Fuel's cheaper across the border": the Gold Coast–Tweed belief, audited — our first cross-border read
The border belief says cross from the Gold Coast into Tweed and fuel's cheaper (or vice versa). Our first NSW-and-QLD read says there's no single cheaper side: QLD's petrol median is ~4.4c lower today, but the cheapest diesel in the whole zone is in NSW. It's the servo, not the state line.
- Myth-bust
At record prices, what does every fuel grade actually cost to DRIVE per 100km?
The pump price lies. Convert Brisbane's record medians to cost-per-100km and E10 turns out dearer to drive than 91, while diesel is the cheapest of the lot despite the highest bowser price.
- Myth-bust
Is Brisbane Airport fuel a rip-off? I checked the on-airport servo
"Never fill near the airport" is the folklore. At Brisbane Airport it's false: the on-airport Shell Reddy Express is 239.9 c/L against a metro median of 238.9 — one cent over ordinary. QLD Government feed.
- Quick answer
Petrol's stuck at $2.39 — is this the peak, or the new normal?
Brisbane ULP has sat frozen near 238.9 c/L for a week. It's a peak, and it will ease — but the floor has moved up: the cheapest servo today is 217.5, where July's median was 167.9.
- Diesel
The diesel plateau broke — and went vertical to nearly $2.90
Three weeks ago Brisbane diesel had flatlined at 254.9. It didn't hold. The metro median is now 289.9 c/L — up 35 cents, climbing almost every day, with the dearest servo a hair under $3.00. Here's why diesel took the full force of the surge.
- Myth-bust
Is 40 percent of your petrol tax? At a record 239.7 it's about 31 — the lowest of the cycle
As Brisbane petrol hits a record ~239.7 c/L, the tax share is at its lowest — about 31 percent, not 40 — because excise is flat and a spike dilutes it. QLD Government feed.
- Oil & macro
This time it IS the barrel: every Brisbane grade jumped 16–21c in a week
Last month I told you the barrel wasn't your lever — the cycle was. This week it flipped. Brisbane 91, 95, 98 and diesel all lurched up 16 to 21 cents together, and that lockstep is the tell: a US$109 crude spike and a weaker Aussie dollar, not the discount cycle.
- Myth-bust
"When prices spike, everything's expensive — no point shopping around." The feed says the opposite
The defeatism that a fuel spike flattens the market is false. Mid-surge in Brisbane the gap to the cheapest servo grew from 16.4 to 23.4 c/L — shopping around pays MORE during a spike, not less. QLD Government feed.
- Quick answer
Big fill or keep topping up — which is cheaper in Brisbane?
Fuel's priced per litre, so 20 litres or 60 costs the same rate — fill size is 0c. What moves your bill is where (about 16c today) and when (about 42c across the cycle).
- Geo-guide
Cheapest fuel on the Bruce Highway, Brisbane to the Sunshine Coast
Heading north for the school holidays? The Bruce is barely dearer up the coast — about 2 cents on the medians (207.9 this end, 209.9 up the Coast) — but every sub-200 fill is at the Caboolture end. The real trap: the Caboolture travel centres at 229.9 while the town discounters two minutes away are 199.9. QLD Government feed.
- market-wrap-cycle
The hike came, the trough never did — Brisbane's back at the peak
Back on 23 August I called Brisbane's discount phase a failure — no real trough coming. It never came. Over the first week of September the metro ULP median hiked about 8 cents to 207.9 c/L, above the early-August peak. The whole lap since early August gave drivers no discount: a flat month near 200-202, a token dip to 199.9, then straight back to the top. Rockets and feathers with the rocket and no feather.
- Myth-bust
Do they all hike on the same day? This week the Brisbane feed says yes
The folklore that servos all raise prices at once, checked against the QLD feed: 325 of 500 Brisbane stations changed on one Monday, 89% inside 48 hours.
- Geo-guide
Cheapest fuel on the M1, Brisbane to the Gold Coast
Doing the M1 run these school holidays? The Brisbane end and the Coast end price about the same — 203.5 vs 203.9 median. The real gap is discounters vs big-brand servos: cheapest is Caltex Eagleby at 195.4, dearest is Ampol Foodary Helensvale at 211.9. QLD Government feed.
- Myth-bust
Is 7-Eleven actually the cheap fuel in Brisbane? The board says no
7-Eleven runs 123 Brisbane metro sites and the famous price-lock app — so drivers assume it's cheap. The QLD feed says its median is 205.9, a cent above the metro-wide 204.9 and about 8c over the discounters. On the board, 7-Eleven is a dear-side big brand.
- Myth-bust
Premium's quiet climb: while 91 flatlined, 95 and 98 crept up
Regular 91 has sat near 205 all through August, but Brisbane's premium grades quietly widened the gap — 95 is now 18c over 91, 98 is 26c, up about 5c in a week. Here's when the premium is still worth paying, and when it isn't.
- Diesel
Brisbane diesel finally stopped climbing — flat at 254.9 for a week
After six weeks of grinding up, Brisbane diesel has plateaued at 254.9 c/L for seven straight days. A pause, not a peak — and the gap to petrol is still creeping wider.
- Myth-bust
"North Lakes is the far-north fuel ripoff": the gripe, audited — and it's the mirror of Wynnum
The far-north belief says North Lakes gouges you and the older suburbs nearby are cheaper. Today's QLD feed says the opposite: North Lakes runs 199.9, Kallangur 207.9. It's the mirror of last week's Wynnum audit — same mechanism, reputation reversed. Competition, not the postcode.
- Quick answer
Is diesel really dearer than premium 98 now? Yes.
In Brisbane today diesel runs a median 254.9 c/L — about 27c over premium 98, and dearer than even the priciest 98 on the map. It's not a data error, and it won't come back down on a cycle.
- Myth-bust
"Wynnum's always the dearest — drive to Tingalpa and save 30c": the local belief, audited
The bayside belief says Wynnum fuel is dearest and Wynnum Rd saves you 30c. Today's QLD feed: Wynnum's genuinely at the top, but the real saving down the corridor is ~10c, up to 22c at the extreme — not 30. And the cause is competition, not water views.
- market-wrap-cycle
The trough that never came — Brisbane's discount phase has failed
Three weeks past the August peak, Brisbane still hasn't had a real trough. The ULP median dipped to 198.9, then ticked back up to 200.9. The cheap-end bloom I reported has retreated, and the trend the cycle swings around has climbed to 194.6 — collapsing the whole swing from about 40 cents to under 10. Stop timing a bottom this lap; there isn't one coming.
- Diesel
The diesel-petrol gap just blew out to 51 cents in Brisbane
Diesel is 51 c/L dearer than petrol now, up from about 40 a fortnight ago. The gap widened because petrol fell off its peak — not because diesel spiked.
- market-wrap-cycle
Brisbane's price 'froze' at 199.9 for a week — but that's the average lying to you
The Brisbane metro ULP median has sat on 199.9 c/L for eight straight days, so it looks like nothing's moving. It's an illusion of the average: underneath, the number of stations under 190 has jumped from 5 to about 60 in a week. The discount is real — it's just at the edges, not the middle.
- market-wrap-cycle
Brisbane's off the August peak — but the drop stalled at 199.9
After hitting 209.9 c/L, the Brisbane metro ULP median fell about 10 cents by 12 August — then parked at 199.9 for five days. That's not a proper trough. Here's why the discount is stalling short, and what to do while you wait.
- Oil & macro
Crude's up 10%. Your Brisbane petrol is down. The barrel isn't your lever
Brent crude has climbed about 10% since late July, to around US$88. Brisbane's pump price did the opposite — off its 209.9 c/L peak to about 199.9. When the barrel and the bowser move in opposite directions, it's proof the local discount cycle sets your fill, not the crude chart.
- Quick answer
How far is it worth driving for cheaper fuel? The break-even, in kilometres
At Brisbane's cycle peak the cheapest servo is ~16 c/L under the pack — but it's usually on the fringe. The maths: on a 50 L fill you can drive ~24 km each way for a 16 c saving before the petrol you burn eats it. Small savings don't travel.
- Myth-bust
E10 is the cheap fuel? Not at these prices
Across 391 Brisbane servos selling both, E10 is now a median of just 2 c/L under regular 91 — and at some it's actually dearer. With E10's ~3% economy penalty worth about 6 c/L, that makes it a false economy for most cars right now.
- market-wrap-cycle
The peak that wasn't: Brisbane petrol pushed past 199.9 to 209.9 — and this leg is the tax, not the cycle
Our 2 August read called Brisbane's cycle peaked at 199.9. It wasn't done — the metro median stepped again to 209.9. But the second leg was the 1 August excise and a wholesale jump, not the discount cycle: retailer margin over wholesale briefly collapsed under 2 c/L.
- Quick answer
Where does the QLD fuel price data come from?
QLD fuel price data comes from the state government feed — retailers must report every price change within 30 minutes of the pump. Here is how it works.
- Geo-guide
Brisbane's cheapest fuel runs down one road — here's the whole strip
Right now the cheapest regular unleaded in metro Brisbane is on the Ipswich Road run — Annerley, Moorooka, Rocklea, Acacia Ridge. A dozen independents at 178.5–185.9 while the pack sits at 199.9. But it's the operators, not the postcode.
- market-wrap-cycle
Brisbane fuel just hit the top: 6 in 10 stations are at 199.9 — the cheapest is 178.5
Brisbane ULP peaked at 199.9 c/L this weekend, 32 days up from the 29-June trough. Nearly six in ten metro stations now sit at the peak — but a handful of Ipswich Road independents are still 21 cents cheaper. Where the cycle goes from here.
- Market wrap
Which brands blinked first: the race to 199.9, timed to the day
As Brisbane's cycle peaked, we timed every major's jump to 199.9 c/L off the Government feed. Ampol's network moved first on 28 July; BP is still dragging; and the independents never went at all.
- Myth-bust
91 vs 95 vs 98: the cents-per-100km on a car that only needs 91
If your handbook says 91, does 95 or 98 pay for itself? The Brisbane maths: 95 costs about $1.06 more per 100km, 98 about $1.81, after the economy gain.
- Quick answer
Do fuel prices spike before long weekends in Brisbane?
Long-weekend fuel spike in Brisbane? The QLD feed shows pre-holiday prices ran 5.3 c/L below the cycle-matched baseline. It's the cycle, not the holiday.
- Geo-guide
Is country fuel really dearer? Brisbane vs Toowoomba, Cairns, Townsville
Country fuel dearer than Brisbane? Over 2.5 years Toowoomba, Gympie, Cairns and Townsville all ran 10-13 c/L under metro. QLD Government feed.
- Myth-bust
Brisbane fuel: wait for the trough or fill on empty? 18 months backtested
Disciplined trough-timing beat fill-when-empty by about $100 a year in Brisbane ULP — and one mistimed tank at the crest erases a month of it.
- Oil & macro
Diesel got hit harder than petrol: why Brisbane diesel is up 52 cents
Brisbane diesel is up 52 c/L since 30 June — more than petrol's 36. The excise, crude and cycle split, plus the 1 August deadline.
- market-wrap-cycle
How long is the Brisbane fuel cycle now? We measured every peak for two years
Brisbane fuel cycle length, measured: 13 peaks over 25 months. The cycle isn't random or longer — it's locked into a ~38-day lap, tighter than ever.
- Quick answer
Does the 4c supermarket docket beat driving to a cheaper servo?
Brisbane data: after your 4c docket, a cheaper independent within 4km still wins by about 6c/L — around $3 a fill. Here's when the docket does win.
- Myth-bust
Does diesel's better economy beat its price premium? The cents-per-100km maths
Diesel costs about 40c/L more than petrol in Brisbane but goes further. On the running-cost maths it's roughly 2.8% cheaper per 100km — a knife-edge.
- Diesel
Diesel tracks wholesale, not the cycle — the two-week lag from the TGP to your bowser
Brisbane diesel rides the wholesale Terminal Gate Price, not the petrol cycle — and takes about two weeks to catch up halfway. Here's the lag, measured.
- Geo-guide
Do Brisbane off-ramp servos really gouge you? I checked
The off-ramp servo has you captive, so it charges more — that's the belief. Inside Brisbane metro, the median off-ramp servo prices the same as the metro overall: 187.9 c/L. No premium. QLD Government feed.
- Myth-bust
Are Costco and the independents really 15-25c cheaper than the majors?
Brisbane data: the 15-25c independent discount is real only near the cycle peak. On a median day it's 7c. Costco runs 14c. Here's the split.
- Market wrap
Fuel prices up fast, down slow: the Brisbane asymmetry, measured
Brisbane fuel prices up fast, down slow: ULP restores in about 9 days and grinds down over about 32 — a 3.6x asymmetry on the market median.
- Quick answer
Why do fuel prices end in .9 (and when they don't)?
Fuel prices ending in .9 are a tenth-of-a-cent leftover from decimal currency. About 4 in 5 QLD prices use it, and here is what it costs.
- Myth-bust
Same brand, different price: the fuel spread hiding within 4km of you in Brisbane
Two servos of the same brand within 4km of Brisbane priced 35 c/L apart. Typical ULP spread inside 4km is 25 c/L. QLD Government feed.
- Geo-guide
The Brisbane corners where it costs 20c to cross the road
3 of 61 Brisbane corners today price 20+ c/L apart across one road. Widest is 34.4 c/L on Beaudesert Rd, Coopers Plains. QLD Government feed.
- Oil & macro
Fuel excise cliff on 1 August: what your next full tank costs
When fuel excise relief ends on 1 August, the 16 c/L cut comes off and the bowser steps up about 17.6 c/L — about $8.80 more on a 50 L fill.
- Quick answer
How much of a litre of petrol is actually tax?
In Brisbane today, tax is about 30 percent of the pump price — not a flat 40. From 1 August, when excise relief ends, it steps up to about 39.
- EV
Is an EV cheaper to run in Queensland? The cents-per-100km
EV vs petrol and diesel running cost in Queensland, cents per 100km from live Brisbane prices. Home charging wins big; public fast-charging can lose.
- Market wrap
How the Brisbane fuel price cycle works, and where it sits today
Brisbane fuel price cycle explained with QLD data: 37-day laps, up in about 7 days, down over 30. Where ULP sits today, and why waiting isn't simple.
- Quick answer
Handbook says 95 — is 91 fine, or will it wreck my car?
Handbook says 95 but you want 91? What the octane gap costs in Brisbane — 95 runs about 15c/L over 91, near $180 a year — and when 91 is fine.
- Diesel
Why diesel doesn't follow the petrol price cycle in Brisbane
Brisbane diesel swings about 4.5 c/L a month; petrol about 45. Diesel tracks wholesale; petrol runs a discount cycle. Timing a diesel trough does not pay.
- Oil & macro
How the oil price reaches your bowser: wholesale sets the floor, the cycle does the rest
Wholesale fuel prices set the floor under Brisbane bowsers, with about a week's lag. But wholesale explains little of the daily swing. QLD data, explained.
- Geo-guide
Cheapest postcodes for petrol in Brisbane on 15 July 2026
Cheapest Brisbane petrol postcodes on 15 Jul: 4106 Rocklea ran 161.2 c/L, 38.7 c/L under the dearest. Median ULP per postcode, QLD Government feed.
- Myth-bust
Is Tuesday really Brisbane's cheap fuel day? The QLD data says you're watching the wrong thing
Cheap fuel day in Brisbane? QLD price data shows the day-of-week gap is under 1 c/L — while the cycle swings ~45 c/L. Watch the cycle, not the calendar.