TL;DR: The saga’s over, and drivers lost it. Back on 23 August I said Brisbane’s discount phase had failed — no real trough was coming. It never came. Instead, over the first week of September, petrol hiked straight back to a peak: the metro ULP median went 199.9 (1 Sep, the shallow “low”) → 200.4 → 203.9 → 203.9 → 205.7 → 205.9 → 207.9 (7 Sep) → 207.9 today (8 Sep). That’s about 8 cents up in a week, and today’s 207.9 is actually ABOVE the early-August peak (the 3 August weekly median was 206.9). Phase: peak. 72% of metro stations are now at or above 204.9. So the whole cycle since early August never gave drivers a discount — it flatlined near 200-202 for a month (no trough), dipped to a token 199.9, then restored to the top. That’s the rockets-and-feathers pattern with the rocket and no feather. Practical read: you’re at the top now, so a big fill today is a bad fill. But the cheap tail is still there — cheapest metro is 191.5 (Pearl Energy Cannon Hill, Shell Tingalpa), about 16 cents under the median — so shopping still beats the pack even at the peak.
I’ve spent a month of this column watching for a bottom that never turned up. On the 16th I said the drop had stalled at 199.9. On the 23rd I called it outright: the discount phase had failed, there was no trough coming this lap. I hoped I’d be wrong. I wasn’t. What happened next wasn’t a late trough — it was a hike straight back to the top.
The hike came instead
Every number here is the Queensland Government price feed — what each Brisbane-metro station reported charging, carried forward to a daily median.
Look at the shape. There is no trough. A proper discount phase falls off the peak and keeps going, into the 180s and sometimes lower — that’s what pays the driver who waits. This lap did none of it. The median came off 206.9, went sideways near 201-202 for the best part of a month, touched a token 199.9 for two days at the end of August, and then hiked. Eight cents in a week, from 199.9 on 1 September to 207.9 today. That’s not a bottom feeding into a modest recovery. That’s a rocket off a shelf that was already near the top.
Above the last peak, and 72% at the dear end
Here’s the part that stings: today’s 207.9 median is above where the last peak topped out. The 3 August weekly median was 206.9; today it’s a full cent higher. So the market spent a month not discounting, then restored to a level dearer than the peak drivers were complaining about in early August.
The pack has moved with it. 72% of metro stations are now at or above 204.9 — nearly three in four sites sitting up at the dear end. This is a fully-formed peak, not a mid-cycle wobble. The dearest metro site today is 229.9; the pack has bunched up near the top and there’s very little cheap middle left.
That’s the rockets-and-feathers asymmetry I measured back in July, running in its ugliest form: the market restores fast and falls slow, and this lap it restored without ever really falling. The rocket, and no feather.
The cheap tail is still worth chasing
The one piece of good news is the same one I’ve been repeating all month, and it still holds: shopping beats the pack even at the peak. The cheapest metro sites today are 191.5 — Pearl Energy Cannon Hill and Shell Tingalpa — with 7-Eleven and Ampol Foodary Colmslie a whisker behind at 191.9. That’s about 16 cents under the 207.9 median. On a 50-litre fill that’s roughly $8 saved for the price of picking the right pin instead of the nearest one. The tail is thinner than it was a month ago, but it exists, and at a peak it’s the only saving on the table.
What it means for your fill
- You’re at the top — don’t do a big fill today. The median is 207.9, above the last peak, with 72% of sites at or over 204.9. If you can put it off, put it off. A full tank bought at the peak is money handed straight to the round number.
- If you must fill, chase the tail. The cheapest metro sites are at 191.5 — about 16 cents under the pack. That gap is real today and it’s the whole point of checking the map before you pull in.
- Watch whether THIS peak finally discounts — but don’t count on it. The last one hiked to a peak, sat flat for a month, and hiked again without ever giving a trough. This one could break the pattern and finally fall. But after watching the last lap stiff drivers completely, I wouldn’t hold my tank hostage to it.
The short version: I called the trough a no-show on the 23rd, and the market answered by hiking straight back to a peak dearer than the last one. There was no discount phase this lap at all. So don’t wait for a bottom that has now failed to arrive twice — find the station that’s 16 cents under the pack and fill there, because at this peak that’s the only saving going.
How we measure: Brisbane-metro stations within a box around the CBD, QLD Government price feed, regular unleaded (ULP/91), obvious data errors excluded, last-known price carried forward to a daily median. Weekly figures are the median on that week’s marker day; the daily tail is each calendar day. “Peak” and “no trough” are a read of where the cycle sits today, 8 September — the pack could still resume falling from here; but a real Brisbane trough runs into the 180s, and nothing on this lap came near it. The cheapest-station figures are the lowest in-range ULP in today’s live pull.