TL;DR: Across 8 Brisbane holidays with clean data, the six days before the long weekend ran on average 5.3 c/L cheaper than the same point in an ordinary cycle. There is no long-weekend spike. What you’re seeing is the 38-day cycle, which happens to peak near some holidays and bottom out near others.

The question

Every long weekend someone tells me the servos have jacked prices up because they know we’re all driving somewhere. It’s treated as a fact. So I checked it.

What we checked

I took eight Queensland public holidays with clean feed data — from Australia Day 2025 through to Australia Day 2026. For each one I looked at the median Brisbane metro price over the six days before the holiday, then compared it against ordinary weeks sitting at the same point in the price cycle. That last part matters: without it you’re just measuring where the cycle happened to be, not whether the holiday did anything. (Not all eight are Monday long weekends — Christmas and Australia Day aren’t — but the “they gouge when we’re all driving” claim gets aimed at any holiday, so I tested the lot.)

All of it is the Queensland Government price feed — what each station reported charging, not a guess at the bowser.

What the data shows

Pre-holiday prices weren’t dear. They were, on average, a little cheap.

Mean gap: 5.3 c/L below the cycle-matched baseline. Median: 5.5 c/L below.
Of the eight holidays, five ran clearly cheaper than an ordinary week, one (Anzac Day) sat near enough to zero, and only two showed a small premium — and those two had the weakest data behind them.
The gap swings from 16 c/L cheaper (Good Friday) to 6 c/L dearer (Australia Day). When the sign flips holiday to holiday like that, it’s the cycle position talking, not the calendar.

Brisbane ULP, 30 km metro, 2025 holidays, Queensland Government feed. Each dot is the six days before a holiday versus the same cycle phase on ordinary weeks. Dots left of the line are cheaper than the cycle alone predicts. There is no holiday premium — the swing is the 38-day cycle. Mar–Apr 2026 holidays excluded on a data gap.

The one holiday people swear felt dear is the Ekka. And on Ekka day itself, ULP was at the top of the cycle — 209.9. But the climb to that peak started days earlier, on the normal cycle schedule, going 165 up to 210 over about ten days. The show didn’t cause it. The calendar just lined up with the crest.

The verdict

Busted. Servos don’t jack prices up before long weekends. When prices are high before a holiday, it’s because the cycle was heading for its peak anyway — and it would have peaked whether or not there was a holiday. The cycle out-drives the calendar about eight to one — a roughly 45 c/L swing across the cycle against a 5.3 c/L average holiday effect.

So what

Don’t fill up early “before the rush.” Look at where the cycle is sitting instead. If Brisbane is in the cheap part of its range the week before you drive, fill then. If it’s near the top, a half-tank to get you clear beats topping right up at the peak — long weekend or not. Pinly shows the cycle position on the map so you’re deciding on the number, not the date on the calendar.

One honest limit

This is Brisbane metro ULP, and it leans on 2025 because a feed gap knocked out the March–April 2026 holidays — so Easter 2026 isn’t in here. Two of the eight holidays had thin baselines, and both of those were the small premiums, which is another reason not to read a spike into them. And it’s petrol. Diesel runs its own cycle, so if you’re filling a ute, that’s Tom’s to check.

Do fuel prices spike before long weekends in Brisbane?