Brisbane petrol and diesel after Brent fell to US$98: how much, and when

TL;DR: Brent’s fall this week is worth about 12.9 c/L at the bowser, GST in, if it all passes through. From Monday to Friday, Brisbane’s unleaded gate price fell 14.0 c/L, about the 14.5 c/L the barrels it could see were worth. The pump is the slow part: the unleaded median fell 6.0 by Friday and 8.0 by Saturday. Friday’s 19.9 c/L gap between pump and gate is the widest since our data resumed in late April. Next week is the test, and it’s on the pump price, not the gap.

“there is no increase in the world market. They just put up the price again to feather their own nest.” — Petrolspy Google Play review, June 2024

That driver was writing about a rise. This week ran the other way, and the world market did move. Brisbane’s wholesale gate took most of it for petrol inside the week. The pump has taken 6.0 of the gate’s 14.0 c/L by Friday.

The claim

Trading Economics puts Brent down more than 13% for the week. Bloomberg (via Rigzone) and CNBC put the fall down to hopes that the US midterm results would hasten an end to the Iran war. Reuters, citing LSEG data, called it Brent’s steepest weekly fall since April 2020; that’s on a 16% measure, which I explain in the footnotes. Drivers hear a number like that and expect the bowser to drop as far. Does it, how much, and when?

What we checked

Brent futures settles for the January contract, from CNBC, Reuters and Bloomberg. The Reserve Bank’s daily exchange rate (table F11) for the same day as each settle. The Brisbane terminal gate price (TGP), the published wholesale list price, from the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP). And what 439 Brisbane stations within 30 km of the CBD report for regular unleaded (91), and 472 for diesel, to the Queensland Government feed, taken as a daily median. Stations are required by law to report every price change to that feed within 30 minutes. It isn’t crowdsourced.

The conversion works for any Australian driver: the change in the Australian-dollar barrel price, divided by 158.987 litres, plus GST. At about 69 US cents, US$1 a barrel is about 1.0 c/L. Excise is fixed per litre, so it doesn’t move with crude. Everything below about the gate and the pump is Brisbane metro only.

What the data shows

I use one window for crude: Brent’s week, from the Friday 30 October settle to the Friday 6 November settle. That’s the week the 13% headline measures, and it starts where my 1 November post left Brent. For the gate I use the barrels this week’s gate prices could see. As in my 18 October and 25 October posts, each gate is set against the last close before it: Monday 2 November’s against Friday 30 October’s, and Friday 6 November’s against Thursday 5 November’s. For the pump and gate I use Monday 2 to Friday 6 November for both fuels, and give the weekend separately.

In Australian dollars the fall is smaller. Brent went from US$113.43 to US$98.32, down 13.3%. The RBA rate went from 0.7040 to 0.6900, so in Australian dollars the barrel went from A$161.12 to A$142.49, down 11.6%. That’s about 12.9 c/L with GST, $6.44 on 50 litres. At a steady dollar it would have been 14.8, so the weaker Aussie dollar took back about 2 c/L of it. Most of the dollar’s slide came on Friday, when Brent settled up just US$0.03.

The unleaded gate moved as far as crude. The diesel gate moved about half as far. Over the barrels this week’s gates could see, 30 October to 5 November, Brent fell from A$161.12 to A$140.13: about 14.5 c/L. Brisbane’s unleaded gate went from 226.0 on Monday 2 November to 212.0 on Friday 6 November, down 14.0. The diesel gate went from 267.6 to 259.9, down 7.7. That’s a close match for petrol this week, but it isn’t a rule. In the week to 23 October, crude added about 6.2 c/L and the unleaded gate fell 12.9. The gate follows Singapore prices for refined fuel, not Brent. I don’t hold a Singapore series, so I can’t say why diesel moved less.

The pump is the slow part. From Monday to Friday the unleaded median went from 237.9 to 231.9: 6.0 of the gate’s 14.0. By Saturday it was 229.9, 8.0 under Monday, and it hadn’t moved by Sunday morning. Since the gate’s 242.5 peak on Monday 12 October, the gate is down 30.5 and the pump 9.0 to Friday (240.9 to 231.9).

The gap is the widest since late April. Friday’s 19.9 is the widest since our data resumed on 28 April; the widest day before it in that time was Thursday’s 17.5. Days this wide or wider aren’t rare in the record, but every one before Friday came before March, when the cycle was still running and the gap passed 50 c/L at its peaks. Counting those, about two days in five since January 2024 have been this wide or wider. For a market with no cycle running, 19.9 is wide. A fast-falling gate widens the gap on its own, because the pump runs days behind. By Sunday morning the gap was 17.9 against Friday’s gate.

When it lands

At the gate, petrol has mostly taken it. The unleaded gate has fallen about as far as the barrels it could see. Friday’s settle was flat, but the dollar fell from 0.7014 on Thursday to 0.6900, which makes Friday’s barrel about 1.6 c/L dearer in Australian dollars than Thursday’s. Monday 9 November’s file is the earliest that could show that. If the gate moves with it, it moves up, not down. Read that as the earliest file that could show it, not a forecast. The diesel gate has taken 7.7 of the 14.5 so far. Whether more follows depends on Singapore diesel prices, which I don’t hold.

At the petrol pump, wholesale is the floor, not the driver. In how the oil price reaches your bowser I found the link peaks at about 3 to 5 business days, but it’s weak: the differenced correlation was 0.12, and week to week it’s 0.19. The floor follows with a lag; the cycle does most of the day-to-day moving. If the unleaded gap went back to its 15.7 median at Friday’s gate, the median would be 227.7, 2.2 under Sunday morning’s 229.9. I’m holding the published 15.7 so this compares with my October posts. Re-run on the panel to 6 November the median gap is 15.2, which gives 227.2, 2.7 under. That’s arithmetic, not a forecast.

Diesel moved faster than any half-life I’ve measured. My July lag post found the diesel pump takes about two weeks (a 13.8-day half-life) to land half a gate move. My 18 October re-runs gave anywhere from 8.7 to 30.3 days. This week the pump fell 5.0 from Monday to Friday (286.9 to 281.9) and 7.0 by Sunday morning (279.9). Measured from Friday 30 October, when the gate was 269.5, the gate is down 9.6 to Friday, so that’s about 52% by Friday and 73% by Sunday. (Against only the gate’s Monday-to-Friday fall of 7.7 it would be 65% and 91%, but the gate had already dropped 1.9 before Monday while the pump hadn’t moved, so the wider start is the fairer one.) Even the fast 8.7-day end puts about 27% of a move at the pump after four days and 38% after six, and that assumes the whole move arrived on day one. This one came in daily steps. The direction is consistent with a quick pass-through: this is a fall, and the July post found falls passed through faster than rises, about 56% at two weeks against roughly 0%, on a thin sample. But 56% at two weeks is slower than 52% in a week, so direction doesn’t explain the speed. One week is still a weak test, and the median moves in half-cent steps. I’ll check it again next week.

My 1 November diesel arithmetic missed. It said that if the gate held at 269.5, the pump had room to rise 3.0 to 5.3 cents back to its usual gap. That post said the gate probably wouldn’t hold, and it didn’t: it fell 9.6 to 259.9 by Friday, and the pump fell 7.0 from that Sunday’s 286.9 to 279.9, a cut at the bowser instead of a rise. The gap itself widened 2.6, from 17.4 to 20.0, just short of the range. The condition failed, so as a guide to your next fill it pointed the wrong way.

Verdict

Not cent for cent, and not all at once. In Australian dollars the week’s fall is worth about 12.9 c/L at full pass-through. Brisbane’s unleaded gate took about the whole move within the week. The pump took 6.0 of it by Friday and 8.0 by Saturday. The 19.9 gap is the widest since late April; every wider day on record came before March, when the cycle was still running. The test across 9 to 13 November is on the pump, not the gap. The mark is 227.7, Friday’s 212.0 gate plus the 15.7 median gap (227.2 on the re-run 15.2). That’s a yardstick to grade against, not a prediction; the link from gate to pump is too weak for one. If the gate moves, the mark moves with it: the current gate plus 15.7. Monday’s gate could rise about 1.6 on the weaker dollar, and a rising gate narrows the gap with no cut at the bowser. That alone won’t count as a pass. If the pump doesn’t come down toward the mark, I’ll say so.

What it means for your next fill

• Diesel: Friday’s median was 281.9 against a 259.9 gate, a 22.0 gap. Sunday morning’s 279.9 is 20.0 over Friday’s gate. Against the three yardsticks from my 11 October post, Sunday’s 20.0 is under all three: the 22.7 from the July post, the 20.5 median since January 2024, and the 30-day median of 20.2. So by Sunday there’s no backlog of cuts on any of them. Friday’s 22.0 had been over the 20.5 and the 20.2, and just under the 22.7. Diesel sits 50.0 over unleaded at the pump on Sunday morning’s medians. At the gate the gap is 47.9 (259.9 − 212.0), up from 43.9 on 30 October in my 1 November post, because the unleaded gate fell faster.
• Cheapest diesel: 259.5, at Pearl Energy Manly West (reported 6.02am Sunday 8 November), Shell Tingalpa (6.56am Sunday), 24Xpress Marsden Park (Marsden, Logan; 9.35am Sunday) and Pearl Energy Cannon Hill (9.15pm Saturday). That’s 20.4 under Sunday morning’s 279.9 median: $14.28 on 70 litres, against $9.02 for the week’s whole crude move. It’s 0.4 under Friday’s gate. The gate is a published list price, and retailers may buy on contract, so being under it doesn’t mean selling at a loss.
• Petrol: there’s no cycle to time. The unleaded median is at the bottom of its 30-day range, but that range is only 11.0 c/L (229.9 to 240.9). Before March, Brisbane’s cycle moved about 45 c/L a lap (Dan’s July figure). The median sat between 236.9 and 240.9 from 19 September until this week. This is the wholesale floor dropping, not a cycle trough.
• The spread still beats the barrel. The cheapest unleaded in Brisbane metro is 214.3 at Pearl Energy Deagon, reported 9.54am Sunday 8 November. That’s 15.6 under Sunday morning’s 229.9 median: $7.80 on 50 litres. U-Go Bracken Ridge was 214.9 at 10.27am. The week’s whole crude move is worth $6.44 on 50 litres. You can check today’s spread near you on Pinly Fuel, from the same government feed. Prices change within hours, so check before you drive.

Honest limit

The one-day pairing of gate and barrel is the last close a gate could see, not a measured lag. I can’t measure how long Brent takes to reach the gate over months, because I don’t hold a single-contract crude or Singapore history. The fall can reverse. Brent rose US$3.67 on Thursday after tanker attacks (Reuters). On Friday, CNBC reported attacks on vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz continuing at a near-record rate, citing UK Maritime Trade Operations data. OPEC+ meets on 29 November (CNBC). Sunday’s medians use reports to 11.25am; the cheapest-station prices were pulled at 11.30am.

How we measured and honest limits:

• Grades. Unleaded is regular unleaded (91, ULP). Diesel is All Diesel: the cheapest of standard and premium diesel at each station, because many metro sites report diesel only under the premium code.
• Where. Brisbane metro only, within 30 km of the CBD. The c/L conversion applies anywhere in Australia. The gate and pump readings don’t apply to regional Queensland.
• The panel. Each station’s last reported price is carried forward if it was reported in the previous 45 days, then the median is taken across stations: 439 for unleaded, 470 to 472 for diesel this week. The 1 March to 27 April 2026 data gap is excluded, as in my earlier posts. Gate prices are carried over weekends at Friday’s. The latest AIP file is 6 November. Sunday 8 November’s medians use reports to 11.25am AEST.
• The windows. Crude uses Brent’s week, the 30 October to 6 November settles (12.9 c/L), because that’s what the weekly headline measures. The gate comparison uses the barrel before each gate, 30 October to 5 November (14.5 c/L). The pump and gate figures run Monday 2 to Friday 6 November for both fuels, with Saturday and Sunday stated separately. Diesel from its own turn: the diesel gate peaked at 270.2 on 29 October and was 269.5 on 30 October, the baseline in my 1 November post. From 29 October the gate is down 10.3 and the pump 7.6 to Sunday (287.5 to 279.9). That’s a different start from unleaded’s, because the diesel gate was still rising into 29 October.
• The conversions. All c/L figures are crude-only estimates at full pass-through and include GST. The A$ barrel is Brent divided by the RBA rate for the same day. The c/L is the change in A$ per barrel divided by 158.987 litres, plus 10%. The 14.8 holds the dollar at 30 October’s 0.7040. Unrounded, that’s 14.85 against 12.89, so the dollar took back 1.96, about 2. The 1.6 for Friday is the dollar’s move from 0.7014 to 0.6900 at a near-flat Brent. Tank figures are the c/L times 50 or 70 litres.
• The petrol gap. The 15.7 is the median pump-minus-gate gap since January 2024, as published in my 11, 18 and 25 October posts. Re-run on the panel to 6 November it is 15.2, because 24 of the 26 days added since 11 October sat under 15.7. “About two days in five” is 416 of 983 days at 19.9 or wider since 1 January 2024, so Friday’s gap sits at about the 58th percentile. From 28 April to 5 November the widest day was 17.5, on 5 November. The last day as wide as 19.9 was 28 February, at 55.7. None of these is a margin: the gap holds freight, retailer costs and margin together.
• The chart points. Each is the unleaded pump median less the same day’s gate: 21 September 238.4 − 230.5 = 7.9; 9 October 239.9 − 241.6 = −1.7; 23 October 237.5 − 222.5 = 15.0; 30 October 239.5 − 225.6 = 13.9; 2 November 237.9 − 226.0 = 11.9; 6 November 231.9 − 212.0 = 19.9. The 5 November point, 17.5, is the widest day from 28 April to 5 November (see The petrol gap), plotted so the “widest since late April” claim can be checked against it. My 1 November post’s 13.3 set that Sunday’s 238.9 median against the 30 October gate, so it isn’t the same day’s reading.
• The petrol cycle. The 45 c/L is Dan’s July figure, a median peak-to-trough drop of 46.5 across 12 swings.
• The correlations. The 0.12 and the 3 to 5 business days are from my July post on how the oil price reaches your bowser. The 0.19 is a week-to-week correlation of price changes from January 2025, as published on 18 October. I haven’t re-run either.
• The diesel yardsticks. The 22.7 is the 18-month median from the July lag post; my 11 October post found it re-runs as 22.2 on this panel. The 20.5 is the median since January 2024 from that post; re-run to 6 November it is 20.4. The 30-day median is re-run for this post over 8 October to 6 November, with weekends at Friday’s gate: 20.2.
• Diesel speed. The 13.8-day half-life is from the July post, on data to 23 July. The 8.7 to 30.3 range is from my 18 October re-runs over three windows, as cited in my 1 November post, not re-estimated since. The 27% is 1 − 0.5^(4 ÷ 8.7) and the 38% is 1 − 0.5^(6 ÷ 8.7); at 13.8 days four days gives 18% and at 30.3 days 9%. The 52% and 73% are 5.0 and 7.0 of the gate’s 9.6 fall from 30 October to 6 November; the 65% and 91% are the same against its 7.7 Monday-to-Friday fall. From the gate’s 29 October peak the fall is 10.3 (see The windows). The 56% and 0% for falls and rises are from the July post and rest on 66 to 103 events a side.
• The 1 November grade. The 3.0 to 5.3 is the room from that day’s 17.4 gap (286.9 pump against 30 October’s 269.5 gate) up to the three yardsticks in that post. Sunday’s 20.0 is 279.9 against Friday’s 259.9. Measured from 29 or 30 October’s 287.5 instead, the pump is down 7.6.
• External figures. Brent settles, January contract: 113.43 on 30 October (CNBC, as in my 1 November post); 104.77 on 2 November, down US$8.66 (Reuters); 103.60 on 3 November, down US$1.17 (Reuters); 94.62 on 4 November (Bloomberg via Rigzone); 98.29 on 5 November, up US$3.67 (Reuters); 98.32 on 6 November, up US$0.03 (CNBC, Rigzone). The five November settles match Investing.com’s table; its 30 October row, 117.64, is the expiring December contract. Some reports, including Reuters’ “steepest weekly fall since April 2020” (citing LSEG data, 6 November), put the week’s fall at about 16%; that compares Friday with that December contract’s 117.64, not the same contract. Trading Economics’ “more than 13%” and its 97.76 Friday close come from its own price feed, which isn’t the settle. The dollar is the RBA’s daily rate (table F11): 0.7040 on 30 October, 0.7023 on 2 November, 0.6976 on 3 November, 0.6972 on 4 November, 0.7014 on 5 November and 0.6900 on 6 November. The cause of the week’s fall is as reported by Bloomberg via Rigzone (4 November) and CNBC (6 November). The Hormuz report is CNBC’s, 6 November, citing UKMTO. The OPEC+ date is from CNBC, 31 October.
• The floors. Live prices pulled at 11.30am AEST on Sunday 8 November, from stations marked available that reported in the past seven days (419 for unleaded). One station’s 28.0 premium diesel quote is excluded as an entry error. A station reports when its price changes, so an older timestamp is not a wrong price, but check before you drive.
• The quote. From a Petrolspy Google Play review dated 7 June 2024, quoted in part. It’s about price rises in general, not this week.

— Tom