TL;DR: The discount phase Brisbane was owed after the early-August peak never showed up. A normal lap runs from a real trough to a real peak — last one went from 167.9 c/L (12 July) up to about 209.9 (early August), a swing of roughly 40 cents. This time the pack came off the top and then stopped: the metro ULP median only dipped to 198.9 (14–15 August) before ticking back UP to 200.9, where it sits today. That’s a discount of well under 10 cents that has already reversed. Two things confirm there’s no bottom coming: the cheap-end bloom I flagged on the 19th has retreated — sub-190 stations are back down to about 5% (roughly 25 of 500) — and the trend the cycle swings around (the 40-day average) has climbed from about 164 in mid-July to 194.6 now, only about 6 cents under today’s median. The swing has collapsed from 40 cents to under 10. Stop waiting for a trough this lap. The only saving left is the cheap tail at 185.5 — about 15 cents under the pack — and it’s shrinking, so take it now.
I’ve written this column three times this month watching for the bottom. On the 16th I said the drop had stalled at 199.9. On the 19th I corrected myself: the median was frozen, but the cheap end was filling up, sub-190 sites jumping toward 60. Both reads assumed the trough was still on its way, just arriving sideways. It wasn’t. Three-plus weeks past the peak, I have to call it: this discount phase has failed. There is no trough this lap.
The missing trough
Every number here is the Queensland Government price feed — what each Brisbane-metro station reported charging, carried forward to a daily median.
Look at the two halves of that line. The left half is a proper cycle: a deep bottom in the 160s, a long climb, a clean top. The right half is the discount phase that was supposed to mirror it — and it barely happens. The median drops a handful of cents off 209.9, touches 198.9 for two days, and then turns straight back up to 200.9. If you were holding out for a repeat of the 167.9 you saw in July, you were waiting for something the market never delivered.
The cheap-end bloom got pulled back
On the 19th the good news was the tail: the median was stuck, but the number of sub-190 stations had grown twelve-fold, from 5 to sixty-odd. I told you to ignore the average and chase the cheap pins. That was right for about 48 hours. It isn’t now.
The bloom has retreated. Today, only about 5% of metro stations — roughly 25 out of 500 — are pricing under 190. The sixty-odd cheap sites of a week ago have mostly restored back toward the pack. Nearly seven in ten stations (69%) are now at or above 199.9. The brief discount at the edges got reeled back in before it ever spread to the middle. So the one thing that was working — a fat cheap tail you could shop — is thinning out fast.
The swing has collapsed
Here’s the mechanical reason there’s no trough, and it’s the number I’d watch from here. The 40-day average — the slow trend line the cycle swings around, not the day-to-day price — has been climbing all month.
Back on 12 July, that average sat at 164.2 while the median was at its 167.9 trough — the price was hugging the trend. Then the peak dragged the average up with it, and it hasn’t stopped. Today it’s 194.6, only about 6 cents under today’s 200.9 median. When the trend line rises right up under the price, there’s simply no room left for the price to fall — the trough gets squeezed out. That’s why the swing has gone from about 40 cents last lap to under 10 this one. The floor under all of this — wholesale carrying the full excise — is the same story I walked through when the drop first stalled; it hasn’t gone anywhere, and it’s why the bottom keeps arriving higher than the last one.
What it means for your fill
- Stop timing the trough this lap. There isn’t one. Three-plus weeks past the peak, the median has already dipped and turned back up. If you’re driving on fumes waiting for a 179.9 like July’s, you’ll be filling at 200.9 out of desperation instead.
- The cheap tail is the only saving left — and it’s shrinking. The cheapest metro sites are still at 185.5: 24Xpress Marsden Park, Ampol Foodary Waterford West, and Liberty at Annerley, Bellbird Park and Moorooka South. That’s about 15 cents under the pack. But a week ago you had sixty-odd of these to pick from; today it’s about 25. Take one now, while they’re still there.
- Watch the trend line, not the median. With the 40-day average at 194.6 and the price at 200.9, the gap is nearly gone. The next real move is more likely to be a restoration back toward the peak than a fresh drop. Don’t hold your tank hostage to a bottom that isn’t coming.
The short version: I called for a trough, the market said no. The discount phase failed, the cheap end is retreating, and the swing has collapsed to under 10 cents. Don’t wait — find the station that’s 15 cents under the pack and fill there today, because that’s as good as this lap gets.
How we measure: Brisbane-metro stations within a box around the CBD, QLD Government price feed, regular unleaded (ULP/91), obvious data errors excluded, last-known price carried forward to a daily median. The 40-day average is a simple moving average of that daily median — a slow trend line, not wholesale. The sub-190 share is the number of in-range stations whose latest reported ULP is under 190 c/L, as a percentage of the 500 stations in today’s live pull. “No trough” is a read of where the cycle sits today, not a forecast — the pack could still resume falling; but three-plus weeks past the peak with the median rising and the tail thinning, the odds don’t favour it.